Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand
John Felkner, Kamilya Tazhibayeva and Robert M. Townsend. American Economic Review 99(2) May 2009: 1-10.
This paper evaluates crop yield impacts from likely climate changes
for Southeast Asia. To do so, the authors link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators,
and global climate change modeling into an integrated economic model of
multistage rice production. The economic model is estimated with detailed
monthly data on inputs, operations, and environmental data over a five year period.
Felkner, Tazhibayeva, and Townsend then forecast impacts under two different future economic scenarios, one
assuming high future global anthropogenic1 pollution
emissions, and the other assuming low. The authors compare results of the integrated
economic model with those of a biophysical model, inputting into both the
stochastic realizations of a weather generator, calibrated against the present
no-climate benchmark and against the two climate change scenarios-mild and
severe. The more realistic forecasts from the socioeconomic model thus include
important farmer behavioral/mitigation strategies. LINK
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